Don’t Fire the Barber

Welcome to the 130th edition of “In Touch”. As always, I would love to continue the conversation so please hit reply and let me know what you think.

Story of the Week: “Don’t Fire the Barber”

A few days ago, after a haircut, my daughter looked at me with genuine concern and said, “Dad, your barber needs to be more careful… he’s making you bald.” In her mind, the logic was crystal clear: haircut = hair loss. The truth, of course, was different. I wasn’t losing my hair because of the barber. The haircut had simply revealed what was already there. And that moment reminded me of something important: our brains are wired to mistake coincidence for cause.

In life and in business, this happens more often than we realise. A rooster crows every morning and moments later, the sun rises. If we relied only on what we see, we might think the rooster controlled the sun. That’s correlation: two things happening together. Causation is different: one thing actually causing the other. Correlation is a starting signal, not proof. It should make us curious… not certain.

Yet many decisions are made on assumptions. Sales go up after a new slogan, so we believe the slogan worked. A project fails after a new person joins, so we think they were the reason. We connect dots simply because they sit next to each other and we miss what really drives performance: preparation, clarity, discipline, trust, consistency. These may be quieter than roosters but they are what truly produce results.

Great leaders pause before they decide. They ask, “What else could explain this?” They look for patterns, not coincidences. They test, they listen, they stay curious. Because acting on the wrong cause may feel decisive but it is often costly.

As we enter the new year and beyond, let’s all lead with curiosity rather than assumptions… and remember, every time something goes right or wrong…

Study the mirror. Don’t fire the barber!

Words of Wisdom

“Correlation doesn’t imply causation, but it does waggle its eyebrows suggestively and gesture furtively while mouthing ‘look over there!’” Randall Munroe

“To acquire knowledge, one must study; but to acquire wisdom, one must observe.” Marilyn vos Savant

A Question to Ponder, dear friend.

Have you ever “joined the dots” and then realised that you had made a mistake?